The Corona Scare

The last 24 hrs were the darkest CORONA day in the country -75000 new cases, highest in the world. And regrettably, we are fast catching up on Brazil, the unenviable second spot holder in total cases - India 33 lac, Brazil 37 lacs. So far in the month of August alone we added more cases than any single nation in the world . 

 The one bright spot in this dismal picture is the low death rate- lowest among the top ten nations. But we can hardly afford to be complacent, as the pandemic spreads its tentacles deeper and deeper more and more would need hospital treatment to keep the death rate low. As it is the infection rate is grossly under reported. Testing rates are woefully low. 

In the top five countries, testing rate per million of population stands as under: US 237450,Brazil 66603, India 27912, Russia 242558, SAfrica 60566 ,Peru 92458 ( in the top ten countries too India has the lowest rate except for Mexico) India with the largest population, save China, is a niggardly - 27912. That means as and when testing picks up there may well be an avalanche of cases, many among them needing prompt hospitalisation. Are we prepared ? State and Central govts need to urgently review. 

Lockdowns, if the current evidence is anything to go by, have only stretched out the seemingly inevitable march of Corona, not stymied it. 

Further does our low death rate imply better Corona medicare? Or is it due to demography, ( among the top ten nations, except for South Africa, all nations have much higher proportions of population in the 65+ yrs category ,the ones supposedly most susceptible) , the innate immunity of people in the region from genetics or other multi-factors rooted in ecology, society and religion ? 

 Our immediate neighbours have much in common with us in these aspects . A comparison would be pretty instructive. Deaths per million of population: Bangladesh- 25, Pakistan 28, Nepal 6 ,Sri Lanka 0.6 ,Myanmar 0.1 ,Bhutan no deaths,  China 3.0,  India 44.  

Obviously , death rates are per se low in the region compared to the west. That is the first conclusion. Maybe the region is favorably endowed. 

 But the discomfiting factor is, neighbours with presumably lower levels of medical infrastructure ( not China) have better controlled death rates.Our death rates are unflatteringly much higher- 44. 

 To sum up, we need quantum leaps in testing and putting hospital infrastructure in place before the imminent covid19 tsunami strikes.

A dark prognosis it may seem , but being better prepared is half the battle won.