A gloomy present fact stares at us. Whereas history bequeathed a J & K pickle , domestic politics kicks in a Jammu logjam as well .
BJP’s ‘ Beauty and the Beast’ betrothal to PDP hoisted the saffron flag in Srinagar but did not have the same fairy tale ending. It was as ephemeral as Elizabeth Taylor’s seven wedlocks. Neither could it quell militancy-pelleting, bulleting and cross-border surgical strike muscularity notwithstanding , nor win the heart and mind of Kashmiris. In its short-lived existence it notched up some dubious firsts - use of a muslim as a human shield by the army, letting ISI into Pathankot airbase to investigate without a reciprocal permit for Indian agencies to do likewise into Pak terror camps, longest ever curfew in the valley, the strange spectacle of ruling party legislators and party men protesting arrest of alleged Kathua rapists by its own government, surge in home bred militancy and ceasefire violations, a total lack of political initiatives or dialogue to abate militancy, appointment of an unseen and unheard interlocutor, and not the least of all , reignition of virulent militancy in the valley. No tears will be shed over its untimely demise. Deservedly it ended ignominiously, so did subsequent dalliances between even more unnatural partners to cobble up a majority.
However the moot point is , why political parties bitten by power lust are unable to forge subsisting fruitful political relationships ? The changing texture of electoral politics in recent times has the answers. Under the sway of Sangh’s polarising weltanschauung assembly polls in Dec 2014 emboweled Hindu votes in BJP ( of the 25 Hindu dominated seats,all of it in Jammu region, BJP won 22 ) and the muslim ones in PDP/NC/INC ; a scenario starkly reminiscent of the 1945 voting pattern for central legislative assembly where congress won 91% of votes in non-Mohammedan seats, Muslim League over 86% in muslim seats.Today, while Hindu Jammu is lustrously saffron coated, ‘secular’ parties are acquiring deeper shades of green. That is the unmistakeable story emerging from the last three assembly elections over the past 18 years.
The state has four distinct electoral colleges - Jammu (Hindu dominated)-25 seats , Jammu (Muslim dominated) 12 seats , Kashmir (only Muslim now) 46 seats and Ladakh (Buddhist and Muslim) 4 seats. Let’s ignore the last two - Kashmir ,here seats shift only between INC/NC/PDP,( BJP has a meagre vote share of less than 3%) and Ladakh with four seats doesn’t really count. The electoral data firmly point to growing alienation of moderate muslim voters from BJP+ (BJP+JKPP) and increasing marginalisation or irrelevance ,whatever, of INC+ (INC/NC/PDP) to Hindu voters. While BJP+ has spiralled upwards from 5 to 22 seats in Hindu Jammu, INC+ has nosedived to 3 from 17.
Region Party 2002 2008. 2014
Jammu (Muslim). BJP+ 0. 0. 3
INC+ 8. 12. 9
Jammu(Hindu). BJP+. 5. 14. 22
INC+. 17. 9. 3
Maharaja Hari Singh by dithering on accession to the Indian union sucked it into a J&K problem - illegal occupation of a third of its area by Pak and questions about legitimacy of India’s soveignty over J&K. But so long as Sheikh Abdullah’s stars lighted the state’s political firmament, J&K had a semblance of political cohesion. His appeal cut across territorial and religious divides. Notwithstanding Pak sponsored militancy state parties singly or in alliances won a fair smattering of seats across territories making governments of the day fairly representative of moderate opinions. Over time greater participation in the electoral process bolstered legitimacy of elected governments. Now sporadic cries of Azadi in the valley are interspersed with whispers of balkanisation on territorial and religious lines, making J&K a state look more like one welded in only by force.
To the ‘external’ boil , Kashmir issue, festering on the body politic of South Asia is added a ‘Jammu problem’, Hindu exclusivity foisted in a predominantly muslim state , for like it or not J&K is 70% muslim. If secular parties are pilloried for muslim appeasement in ‘Hindu’ India , BJP is no saint, it is equally culpable of Hindu appeasement in the only ‘Muslim’ India.
Pursuit of Identity politics buries all hopes of ‘Kashmiriyat, Jamhooriyat and Insaniyat’ taking fresh roots. What the recent developments fortell is that J&K isn’t governable sporting a Hindu diadem and chanting Ram. A ‘love jihad’ist outlook brooks no ‘unnatural’ marraiges. To govern Kashmir with any modicum of legitimacy one needs embed the soul of Ram-Rahim within. Only then will militancy suffer exsanguination. The nation can ill-afford a ‘Jammu problem’ sinking J&K deeper into political morass.
